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John Werner's College Predictions: Texas Longhorns still thinking BCS


Friday, November 14, 2008

After feeling the glare of the national spotlight for almost a month, Texas is no longer the hottest story in college football.

But don’t think the Longhorns are out of the national championship picture.

After a crushing 39-33 last-second loss to Texas Tech, the Longhorns dropped out of the No. 1 spot. But they came back to pound Baylor, 45-21, last week to improve to 9-1 and move to third in the BCS rankings.

The Longhorns need to finish the regular season with wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, and hope that Oklahoma knocks off the Red Raiders next weekend. Then it will really get interesting.

#4 Texas (-13) at Kansas

Frankly, I’m surprised the Longhorns aren’t favored by more.

With an offense led by quarterback Todd Reesing and receiver Kerry Meier, the Jayhawks can put points on the board. But the defense isn’t nearly as good as last season when Kansas finished 12-1.

Texas quarterback Colt McCoy burned Baylor’s defense for 300 yards and five touchdowns, and the running game is getting better all the time. The Jayhawks, who have given up 164 points in the last four games, won’t be able to stop them.

Texas 42, Kansas 21

Texas A&M (+8) at Baylor

During most years, the Aggies are usually a double-digit favorite against the Bears.

So it was a bit shocking to see Baylor favored by eight.

That says a lot about how poorly Texas A&M’s defense has played throughout the season. The Aggies have given up a league-high 35.9 points per game and set a record last week by allowing the most points ever against them at Kyle Field in a 66-28 loss to No. 5 Oklahoma.

Except for losses to Wake Forest and Oklahoma, the Bears have played well at home this year. Missouri was lucky to get out of Floyd Casey Stadium with a 31-28 win two weeks ago.

Expect Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin and running back Jay Finley to pile up plenty of yardage against the Big 12’s worst rushing defense.

Baylor 42, Texas A&M 28

#11 Oklahoma St. (-16 1/2) at Colorado

After last week’s 56-20 thrashing by No. 2 Texas Tech, the Cowboys need a break.

They should get it against a Colorado team that’s 5-5 only because it plays in the Big 12 North. In games against South opponents, the Buffaloes have dropped a 38-14 decision to Texas and a 24-17 loss to Texas A&M.

The Buffaloes don’t have enough defense to stop the most balanced offense in the Big 12, and are too unsettled at quarterback to drive consistently on the Cowboys’ defense.

Oklahoma State 45, Colorado 21

#12 Missouri (-27 1/2) at Iowa State

It’s been more than two months since the Cyclones have won a football game. Don’t expect that drought to end against a Missouri squad that’s headed for the Big 12 North title.

With six straight Big 12 losses and eight overall, the Cyclones have proven they are the league’s worst team without a doubt. In conference games, Iowa State has been outscored by an average of nearly three touchdowns.

After consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Texas, the Tigers have picked up steam with three straight wins.

Missouri 45, Iowa State 14

#24 South Carolina (+22 1/2) at #3 Florida

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier comes back to his old stomping grounds in Gainesville, but he’d better get his fun in before the game.

With the way the Gators are rolling, this one won’t be pretty for Spurrier.

The Gamecocks rank third in the nation in total defense, but they probably won’t stay there after Tim Tebow and company get through with them.

Florida 49, South Carolina 21

Last week: 4-1 overall, 4-1 against the line

Season: 48-7 overall, 36-19 against the line

jwerner@wacotrib.com

757-5716

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