Now that the Florida primary is well behind us, it’s important to take a longer look at the battle for the Latino vote in the general election. This growing voting bloc could be the deciding factor if the results prove as close as expected.

This is particularly true in five swing states — Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona. President Barack Obama carried the first four of these in 2008 and is planning a strong push in Arizona this time.

Responding to the GOP base, the Republican Party and its leading presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, may be unable to embrace comprehensive immigration reform and reject harsh right-wing, anti-immigrant rhetoric. So it’s difficult for Romney to make significant headway among this important part of the U.S. electorate. It may well tilt the playing field to Obama — who won two-thirds of the Latino vote in 2008.

I represented a large Latino population in Texas for the 26 years I served in the House. So I understand this important political struggle. Here are some lessons going forward.

First, though Romney captured the Cuban vote in the Florida primary, this doesn’t mean the GOP can win Latino votes this fall. Unlike other Latino voters, Cuban-Americans are reliably Republican.

The vast majority of Latinos in other states, however, are not from Cuba. Many are from Mexico, as well as Central America and Puerto Rico. Even in Florida, there is now a significant number of non-Cuban Latinos who tend to vote Democratic.

Second, assuming Romney is the Republican nominee, he has a lot of ground to make up with Latinos after being pushed far to the right on the immigration issue during the early primaries and caucuses.

Many Latinos are culturally conservative, patriotic and remarkably entrepreneurial. On paper, this sounds like fertile territory for the GOP. But once Latinos have heard the GOP’s strong anti-immigrant rhetoric, they may well stop listening to anything else Republicans have to say. Look at what’s happened so far.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry actually said some sensible things about immigration in an early debate. He spoke favorably of the DREAM Act, which permits illegal immigrant children to attend state colleges and pay in-state tuition. He condemned the proposed fence along the U.S.-Mexico border as a terrible idea. But Perry quickly had to backtrack when attacked by Romney and other GOP candidates as well as influential conservative groups.

Meanwhile, the Republican Legislature in Texas, in a high-profile action, recently refused to create additional Hispanic congressional districts. It did this even though Latino communities accounted for most of the state’s population growth in the last decade, which gained Texas four new districts. This matter is still in the federal courts, but it is being closely monitored by Hispanic groups.

In addition, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer continues to be a lightning rod for the most xenophobic, anti-immigrant sentiments in the Republican Party.

Romney will have to move off his hard-line position on immigration reform if he is to make a credible pitch to Latino voters. Building a fence and deporting 11 million people through “self-deportation” is not the answer. He may be considering moving toward Gingrich’s original position on earned legalization.

The GOP must also continue to showcase high-profile Republican officeholders like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez. However, putting people like Rubio on television as a spokesman won’t be enough if the party forces them into an ideological straitjacket on immigration reform.

Keep your eye on this important voting bloc. Right now, it’s advantage Obama.

Martin Frost, D-Texas, served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1979 to 2005 and was Democratic Caucus chairman and head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He is now an attorney with Polsinelli Shughart.

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