The fate of Baylor University may have serious effects on not only the Waco economy but also the economy of Texas.

Depending on who you ask.

As the sun set on a hectic Thursday, Big 12 conference schools and their fans knew that the University of Colorado would migrate west to join the Pac-10. It also was widely reported that Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were being offered the other spots in an expanded Pac-10.

Meanwhile, reports said Nebraska is prepared to accept an invitation to the Big Ten.

Most reports had Baylor on the outside looking in, separated from its Texas brethren.

If that’s the case, Waco-based economist Ray Perryman said, the impact will be felt near and far in Texas.

The report Perryman shared Thursday includes an estimated $714 million loss in annual expenditures in the state of Texas.

Waco’s potential hit could reach $196.7 million annually. Those losses include tourism — money spent at restaurants, hotels, stores, gas stations, etc. — television revenue and other areas, he said.

Additionally, Perryman projects the loss of 5,764 jobs statewide and 1,677 in the Waco area if Baylor is not in the same conference as the other Texas Big 12 schools.

Perryman based both the dollar and jobs figures on the assumption that Baylor, if not included in a move to the Pac-10, would compete in a less prestigious conference.

Waco hotel operators were keenly aware of Thursday’s developments.

Athletic competition between Baylor and its in-state rivals, particularly in football, bring the heaviest hotel use, said Justin Edwards, general manager of the Hampton Inn & Suites Waco South.

“Texas and Texas A&M, those (football game) weekends are always sellout weekends,” Edwards said.

He questioned whether attendance would be as heavy if Baylor were playing in a conference with schools that are farther away than their in-state rivals.

Local merchants react

Sammy Citrano, owner of George’s Restaurant & Catering, estimates Baylor and the Big 12 have a $150 million annual impact on Central Texas and said it would be “devastating” to lose that economic generator.

Sterling Sherrill, president of the Waco Hotel/Motel Association, was not as dire in his outlook as Perryman, Edwards or Citrano.

Sherrill said if Baylor ends up in a new conference and enjoys increased athletic success, it could attract as many visitors as Baylor does in the Big 12.

Additionally, even if Baylor is not included in a move by the other Texas Big 12 schools, Texas and Texas A&M still could be scheduled for nonconference games, Sherrill added.

However, television dollars are a key element in the ongoing discussions and are an important aspect of the economics of NCAA Division 1 athletics schools.

TV dollars were reportedly a primary reason why Colorado, with its neighboring Denver audience, was chosen ahead of Baylor.

Currently, Big 12 schools get $7-$11 million a year from television revenues.

Pac-10 member schools are receiving $8-$10 million a year but have their eyes set on a television deal similar to that of the Big Ten, which has its own cable network.

Big Ten schools receive between $20 million and $22 million annually, courtesy of their television deal.

Baylor economist Tom Kelly said the Big 12 lacked foresight in its television deal and should be at or near the top of the heap of television revenue-generating conferences.

“But right now, (the Big 12) is kind of looking like the stepchild or poor sisters of the TV world, when this part of the country is one of the most attractive areas in the nation for television,” Kelly said. “We have wealthy people coming in, population is growing, and the time of the day you can show a game are things that favor us. . . . There should be people clamoring to get into our conference and not the other way around.”

Like Sherrill, Greater Waco Chamber of Commerce President Jim Vaughan sees light at the end of the tunnel.

Regardless of whether Baylor gets its wish and the Big 12 remains intact, leaves for another conference with the other Texas schools or moves to another conference altogether, Vaughan said he thinks the school will continue to help Waco thrive.

“Is it important to our economy that people come to Baylor for these football games? Absolutely,” Vaughan said. “Is it important to hotels and restaurants and service businesses? Absolutely.

“But, we only play Texas here every other year. We only play Nebraska here every few years. So it’s not like our economy is going to fall into the tank because of this. It’s not ending our economic world as a community.”

Staff writers Mike Copeland and Bill Teeter contributed to this story.

twoods@wacotrib.com

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