We had a short break before Central Texas returned last week to blistering days of 100 degrees. But that cool front of a week ago brought no rain.

We need a big rainfall event to end this weather pattern. Since October 2010, McLennan County has had 13.92 inches of rain. Our 10-year average for the same period is 30.45 inches.

We are 16.53 inches below the average rainfall from October through August. These have been the driest 11 months on record.

 To meet our average yearly rainfall, we will need 22.5 inches of rain before the end of December. The forecast for rain is not good.

Livestock producers who would normally be planting small grains now for grazing are planting a limited amount of wheat and oats, and hoping it will rain. Very few are putting out fertilizer with this planting.  

It will take a slow steady rain for there to be enough moisture to germinate the seed and soak in to the soil deeply. The fear is we will get enough rain to germinate the seed but not enough deep moisture to keep the plants alive.  

Small grain producers are in the same predicament and would normally have fields plowed with fertilizer applied pre-planting.

A large percentage of small grain producers in Central Texas will dry-plant some wheat, but not all of their intended acres will be planted yet.

 As older farmers and ranchers sell off their cow herds, many will not buy replacements when it finally rains. Herds that have taken years to build have been sold off because of the lack of grass and water.

Many of these producers will not get back into the cattle game. Sad to say, but it may be an end of an era of beef production for some.

Beef cattle numbers at the sale barns remain high. The price of calves and slaughter cows remains steady to strong. The record prices have fallen off, but the slaughter prices are 15 cents to 20 cents higher than average.  

Cattle producers who are buying hay are paying a premium price as the supply dwindles.

Most cattle producers know about how much longer they can hang on waiting for rain. They must assess their stocking rate and water and hay supply.

Shane McLellan, a county extension agent for more than 13 years, serves as the agriculture agent for McLennan County. His email address is s-mclellan@tamu.edu.