COLLEGE STATION – Recent predictions by the National Weather Service of a 50 percent chance for another La Niña in the southern Pacific Ocean this fall can be taken two ways — with optimism or pessimism, said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University professor and Texas state climatologist.

Some may view the prediction with a sense of gloom. But before they get too pessimistic, they should remember the NWS is saying there is “only” a 50 percent chance, Nielsen-Gammon said.

The contribution of the very strong La Niña pattern of mid-2010 to the worst drought in Texas history continues to be felt throughout the state, according to Texas AgriLife Extension Service personnel reports.

A farmer disks corn stubble in the Texas Blacklands. Most corn in the area either failed or had extremely low yields, according to Texas AgriLife Extension Service personnel.
Robert Burns / Texas AgriLife Extension Service

“To look on the optimistic side, there is an equal 50 percent chance of having no La Niña at this time,” he said. “And even if there is a moderate La Niña, it doesn’t necessarily mean we will definitely have a dry winter again, it just means it will be more likely.”

It also is important to remember that the large computer models used by the NWS are predicting “a weak to moderate” La Niña, Nielsen-Gammon said.

In comparison, the La Niña that developed in mid-2007 and lasted into 2009 was a moderate one and though it was associated with a dry summer, it was not nearly so devastating as the current weather pattern, he said.

If you view the cup as half-empty and assume that we will have another La Niña starting this fall, it still shouldn’t herald as a severely dry year as what we’re currently experiencing, he said.

But Nielsen-Gammon warned that better than worst doesn’t guarantee the hardship the agricultural sector is experiencing will just go away.

Abnormal La Niña or not this fall, a second year of even moderate drought would leave many water supplies in even worse shape.

“We already have had an extremely dry year, so we should see more precipitation next year, but there is still a very good chance it won’t be good enough take us out of the drought, and we will still be having problems with dry conditions even into next summer,” he said.

More information can be found on the AgriLife Extension Agricultural Drought Task Force website at http://.agrilife.tamu.edu/drought/.

West Central

Extremely hot, dry conditions prevailed with no relief forecast. Record-breaking temperatures took a toll on crops, livestock, pastures and wildlife throughout the region. Irrigated cotton remained in fair condition, but producers were having a hard time keeping up with water demands. Some irrigation wells went dry. Other field crops failed, and producers were making insurance claims. Pastures and rangeland were in poor condition. Most producers were out of grazing and water for livestock, and they continued to cull herds. More ranchers were selling out entirely.

East Texas

Daytime temperatures in the triple digits and a lack of rain caused the drought to worsen. Water resources drastically receded or dried up completely. Some communities put water-use restrictions into place. Little to no hay has been cut. Producers were looking elsewhere for hay to buy. Some producers have gone as far as the Dakotas trying to find hay. Culling and liquidation of herds continued. Livestock under supplemental feeding were in fair condition. Burn bans remained in place.

Far West

Conditions remained hot and dry across the region. Burn bans were still in effect. Pecan and hay producers were irrigating and fertilizing their crops. Pecans were coming out of the water stage and entering the gel stage, but individual trees showed signs of heat stress. Very low wilt and insect pressure was reported on cotton. Pastures and rangeland grasses were super dry and brittle.

North

Conditions continued to worsen. Soil-moisture levels were extremely short, with record high temperatures for the week. Several days of record-breaking temperatures were recorded, overturning highs since recordkeeping began in 1892. Daytime temperatures were in the 100-plus range for days, and nighttime lows in the 80s.

The corn harvest was about 90 percent complete, and the grain sorghum harvest was about 50 percent to 60 percent complete. Yields for corn appeared to be about average, and the same held true for grain sorghum. With the extreme heat, pastures were rapidly depleted. Cotton, rice and peanuts were all in very poor condition.

Panhandle

The region remained hot and mostly dry. Some counties reported receiving from a trace to 1 inch of rain. Soil moisture continued to be mostly very poor, and crops were suffering. Producers were diverting water from corn to other crops and less acres. Cotton was in mostly poor to very poor condition. Rangeland and pastures continued to decline. Cattlemen were culling deeper into their herds and trying to find other states with grazing available, where they could ship their cattle.

Southwest

The region remained almost completely dry. Record high or near-record high temperatures of above 100 degrees aggravated the drought. The entire region remained in wildfire-alert status. Many stock tanks were dry and water levels of some wells were low. Forage availability remained far below average for this time of the year. The corn and sorghum harvests were finished.

The cotton, watermelon and cantaloupe harvests were ongoing. Some sweet corn was planted for an early fall harvest. Peanuts, pecans and landscape nursery crops continue to make good progress wherever irrigation water was still available.

Ranchers continued to provide supplemental feeding for livestock.