Property crime appears to have dropped for the third consecutive year in Waco, as the city followed a nationwide trend bucking the popularly held notion that property crimes rise in poor economic environments.

According to the FBI’s Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, which includes data from the first six months of 2010, the number of property crimes — including burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft — took a dive in the first part of the year, with only 3,190 property crimes reported from January to June 2010, compared with 3,357 during the same time period in 2009.

The steepest drop in a single crime was motor vehicle theft, with only 103 car thefts in the first six months of 2010, versus 153 reported in the first six months of 2009.

Former Waco police spokesman Commander Melvin Roseborough said in a previous interview it’s difficult to speculate, much less pinpoint, why some years post higher numbers of crime than others.

Regardless, it is surprising that property crimes would be down, given the economic climate, he said.

“That’s unusual in a recession-type environment,” Roseborough said. “But I think we’re very fortunate in Waco that we haven’t had a huge spike.”

Sung Joon Jang, an associate professor of sociology who specializes in criminology at Baylor University, said while there is a link between economic circumstance and crime, the relationship may not be as strong as the public thinks it is.

“Even though the relationship between the economy and property crime is not completely nonsensical . . . it’s not exactly what we tend to think,” he said.

Although a person who is already a thief may steal more in dire circumstances, the economy is not likely to change a law-abiding citizen into an instant scofflaw, he said.

In addition to exposing the flaws in the notion that crime immediately follows economic hardship, the year’s low property crime numbers also could be indicative of more time spent at home by the unemployed.

More people at home can work two ways, Jang said. Parents are keeping a closer eye on their children who may be prone to juvenile delinquency, and the presence of the parents at home acts as a deterrent to would-be criminals.

But the effect may be relatively minor, he said.

“Even when you talk to a criminologist who specializes in crime trends, trying to come up and explain those changes, they do not say (a main reason),” he said. “There are a list of things . . . even which factor contributes more to changes in crime (that) are difficult to determine.”

A declining problem

In general, property crime in Waco has been declining for the past 25 years.

And, like the rest of the nation, the city has seen decreasing crime in general within the past 20 years.

Criminologists have several theories on what would fuel the nationwide decline, including tougher penalties for repeat criminals and more active community policing.

Jang has not studied Waco’s community, but he suspects the city may have seen a shift in ratios of age ranges, meaning that during the years, the city had a dwindling number of 15-to-25-year-olds, the age group responsible for most crimes.

At its height in 1988, there were 12,690 property crimes reported in Waco, including 631 motor vehicle thefts, 4,128 burglaries and 7,931 larceny-thefts.

In 1988, Waco boasted a population of 106,197 people.

While the numbers have fluctuated throughout the years, the number of property crimes has been on a downturn.

In all of 2009, only 7,110 property crimes were reported, which included 334 motor vehicle thefts, 1,897 burglaries and 4,879 larceny-thefts.

The city’s population had increased by that time to 125,098 people.

kcrow@wacotrib.com

757-5748

RELATED SEARCHES

• Study: Waco residents feel safe, but believe city has serious crime problem