Democratic Party chairs from McLennan County and the nine other counties that form Senate District 22 will decide in the next three weeks whether to nominate a candidate to run against state Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury.

According to several Democratic consultants and officials knowledgeable about strategic discussions, a number of factors are being considered.

These include the political makeup of the district, the cost of running a viable campaign and the impact a race could have on Democratic U. S. Rep. Chet Edwards’ re-election efforts.

The district includes McLennan, Bosque, Coryell, Falls and Hill counties and stretches to include the southern suburbs of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

As a whole, the district tends to lean Republican.

Sixty-eight percent of its voters chose Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the 2008 elections — much higher than the 55 percent he received from the state as a whole.

And that scenario repeated itself for numerous statewide races, in which Republican candidates performed markedly better in the district than in the state as a whole.

The district includes six counties that make up about 65 percent of the population in the congressional district represented by Edwards, a Waco Democrat.

Though Edwards won those counties collectively in his 2008 election, his margin of victory was slimmer — at 4.9 percentage points — than the 7.5 percentage point spread he had overall.

Several Democrats noted there was a chance a state Senate contest could boost turnout in the conservative northern pocket of Edwards’ district, where Birdwell lives. That potentially could hurt Edwards in what’s predicted to be a close race against Bill Flores, R-Bryan.

However Jeff Rotkoff, an Austin-based Democratic consultant who has worked on a number of Central Texas campaigns, said he thought that argument was sometimes overstated.

“I understand why that’s a calculation people make, but when there have been particularly strong or weak candidates up and down the ballot, it’s never prevented Chet from being re-elected,” said Rotkoff, who works on Democratic state House races.

A number of Democratic consultants and officials discussed the party’s strategic conversations when contacted by the Tribune-Herald . But most declined to do so publicly since deliberations are ongoing.

Rotkoff said the district is tough for Democrats but is not unwinnable.

“I don’t think it’s a political suicide mission. I think if a Democrat does get in a race, they could be competitive,” he said.

However, the district “includes lots and lots of Republican-leaning voters who, if they’re not communicated with adequately, would vote Republican,” he said.

The Republican tilt is compounded because advertising costs are significant in the district, particularly in the counties that lie in the pricey Metroplex media market.

Several Democrats said they thought a candidate would need to spend at least $750,000 to be competitive in the district.

But while the district presents challenges, there are certain advantages for a Democrat, as well.

A candidate from the Waco area would have home-field advantage in the district’s largest county, in terms of population.

And public statements from state Democratic Party officials suggest the party likely would raise anew questions about Birdwell’s eligibility for the seat that came up during the recent special election to replace Kip Averitt.

During that campaign, which Birdwell won, his opponents said he ran afoul of a state residency requirement when he voted in Virginia in the 2006 general election.

The Texas Constitution requires state senators to have lived at least five years in the state.

Birdwell and his lawyers have argued that other factors, like his intention to return to Texas after a career in the military, outweigh the Virginia voting history.

McLennan County’s Democratic Party chairwoman, Karen Petree, said the state party chairman hasn’t set the meeting where the final decision will occur.

The meeting could occur as late as Aug. 24, according to the state’s election code.

mshapiro@wacotrib.com

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