COMMENTARY: Primary will be a Texas slugfest

AUSTIN, Texas — If history ruled, the Texas Democratic presidential primary in 16 days would shake out as a sure win for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton handily carried the 1992 primary on his way to the White House and the two have enthusiastically worked Texas byways since they registered voters and organized support for George McGovern the summer of 1972, when Barack Obama was turning 11.

But strategies on the ground before the March 4 primary — including the opening of multiple campaign offices, the infusion of nationally tested field staff, early TV and radio ad buys and plans by the candidates to vigorously stump the state — demonstrate that Clinton and Illinois Sen. Obama expect a voter-by-voter slugfest with huge stakes.

If Texas tilts Obama's way, Clinton's goal of recovering from Obama's recent spate of wins will be smashed; her campaign could crash. But if the state sticks with her, perhaps rewarding her with a whomping margin, she could gain desperately needed momentum before balloting in the remaining 10 states and two territories that will weigh the candidates before the party's August convention in Denver.

Most likely, political professionals say, the pair could end up without wide differences in their shares of the state's 228 delegates. That's because most delegates will be awarded proportionally within state senatorial districts — with 126 delegates going to the candidates based on the popular vote March 4. Another 67 delegates will be selected later via a process that begins with 8,000 election-night precinct caucuses.

The wild card for both candidates could be turnout. In the heavily contested 1988 Democratic primary, won by Michael Dukakis, nearly 2 million voters, 23 percent of the state's registered voters, cast ballots. If that share of voters acts this year, the Democrats would set a record of about 3 million voters.

Strategists for Clinton and Obama sound like heavyweights primed for 15 rounds.

"We're going to win the primary," Clinton's Texas coordinator, Garry Mauro, said last week during a South Texas swing with the senator. And, he said, the campaign will contest each primary-night caucus with a team of organizers steered by Sherman lawyer Bob Slagle, former chairman of the Texas Democratic Party.

"We're going to take them on in the trenches," Mauro said, referring to the caucus sites. "They'd better be ready to fight in all of them."

Obama, however, has done well in caucus states so far, winning 11, to Clinton's two, according to his campaign.

Steve Hildebrand, Obama's national deputy campaign manager, conceded Obama starts as an underdog in Texas. But, Hildebrand said, "we're very tenacious about going in and organizing. In every state we've gone into so far, we find this remarkable grass-roots support." For example, he said, Obama has 100,000 Texans on his email list. Obama will "have to do more media, we have to do more phone banking, we have to do more mail and door-to-door canvassing," Hildebrand said, adding: "We're lucky Texas is in a warm place in the country."

Clinton, who stopped Tuesday and Wednesday in El Paso, McAllen, Robstown and San Antonio, will visit the state many times, Mauro said, reinforced by her daughter, Chelsea, and Bill Clinton, who swung through East Texas on Friday.

"Every part of Texas will see her" personally, he said.

Hildebrand said Obama, who stunned the political world by drawing about 20,000 people to a rally at Austin's Auditorium Shores last February, will spend ample time in Texas. "It's going to be really important for him to have a range of events and occasions to speak wth Latino voters and all voters. We've got a little bit of luxury of time," Hildebrand said. After Tuesday's primaries in Wisconsin and Hawaii, the candidates will have two weeks to focus on Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island and Vermont, all voting March 4.

"We'll bounce back and forth from Ohio to Texas," Hildebrand said. "It's going to be multiple visits, multiple types of trips," with an effort to hold small gatherings such as living-room chats and cozy barbecues, plus rallies drawing 10,000 to 15,000 people.

Both campaigns launched TV advertisements last week — Obama touting his commitment to health care reform, Clinton her commitment to military veterans' benefits. Mauro said Clinton's campaign was airing spots in each of the state's 20 media markets, with plans to maintain significant buys until the primary. Obama's camp said its ads were running in seven markets including Austin, though its buys could expand. Depending on when and where ads are bought, each campaign's TV costs could exceed $1 million a week.

The ads arrived in time to reach voters before the state's 11-day early-voting period begins Tuesday, reflecting the pitched battle. Some 35 percent of votes cast in the 2004 Democratic primary occurred in early voting.

Hildebrand said Obama's campaign is on top of the early-voting period. "We wanted to get on TV right away to make sure we're communicating with early voters," he said. "You'll see a huge effort by Texas volunteer forces, encouraging them to vote now. We look at it as a two-week election day."

Mauro said Clinton's support among elected officeholders, especially among leaders along the Texas-Mexico border, gives her a leg up in early voting. "There's a culture where elected officials... help people go to early voting."

Much has changed since Bill Clinton drew more than 65 percent of nearly 1.5 million votes in the 1992 primary. At the time, Democrats held most statewide executive offices and one of the two U.S. Senate seats. By 1999, Republicans held every statewide office, and Democrats have not won a statewide race since. In addition, the state has grown more urban, and the share of Hispanic residents has increased.

Bill Clinton could stump Texas with established elected leaders such as Gov. Ann Richards, tapping into their connections. There's no established Democratic leader in Texas now for either candidate to lean on during the last stretch of the Texas race.

Florida Democratic consultant Robin Rorapaugh, who helped Bill Clinton in Texas in 1992, expects Obama to close on Clinton, who has led in most voter polls. "The Clinton campaign's hope that Texas will be the next firewall is whistling (past) the graveyard," Rorapaugh said, suggesting the proportional distribution of delegatesgives Obama leverage, "plus the momentum that Obama is gathering (in other states) points to a very good showing."

Because Texas Democrats award delegates proportionally, even if Clinton wins the popular vote statewide, Obama could whittle at her victory and win delegates by staying close behind in some districts.

Unlike in California, Rorapaugh said, where Clinton prevailed while tapping a comfortable edge among Latinos, "Hispanics and African Americans in Texas have enjoyed a long history of successful coalition building," perhaps to Obama's gain. "Obama support grows in all demographics as voters are exposed to his message," she said.

Rorapaugh suggested Obama's momentum — eight wins since Super Tuesday — has given him the powerful look of a winner. Historically, Texas Democrats have favored the person who went on to win the party's presidential nod. Past Texas primary winners include Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980; Walter Mondale when the party held caucuses only in 1984; Michael Dukakis in 1988; Clinton in 1992 and 1996; Al Gore in 2000; and John Kerry in 2004.

Rorapaugh and other experts expect the race to come down to which candidate sells themselves effectively day to day before the primary — via TV and radio advertising (already launched by both candidates, in English and Spanish) and direct mail, but also by how they drive up excitement among core supporters while carving into the other candidate's base.

"They both have a combination of getting out the vote and persuasion to do," said Dan McClung, a Houston consultant. "He needs to persuade some Hispanics," who tend to align with Clinton. "She needs to persuade some African Americans," who could be leaning to Obama. "Both have to get their bases out. Hers is older Anglos and Hispanics, and his are younger and better-educated Anglos and African Americans."

Christian Archer, a San Antonio political consultant, credits Clinton with locking in Hispanic leaders and expects her to make inroads with African Americans. Her supporters include U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Houston, who is African-American.

"Clinton needs to break Obama's margins in African American communities in the cities and she's got to hold Obama back from getting Hispanic support," Archer said.

Obama, who has won endorsements from U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez of San Antonio and state Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas, Juan Garcia of Corpus Christi, Pete Gallego of Alpine and Eddie Lucio III of San Benito cannot win the state without reducing Clinton's margins with Latino voters, Archer said. "The real critical counties will be south of I-10 and what happens between Obama and Clinton. Can he be heard and are they (voters) available to listen? He has got to do a lot of work to make that happen," Archer said. "He has got to be there himself. He should campaign in South Texas a lot."

Obama should also lean on Sen. Ted Kennedy and Kennedy's niece, Caroline, to campaign for him, Archer said. The Massachusetts senator did radio interviews with South Texas stations Friday. Hildebrand said the Kennedys "have committed to do whatever we need them to do. I would be surprised if we didn't do something like" a South Texas tour.

Mauro, mindful that Kennedy's endorsement didn't keep Clinton from winning the Massachusetts primary, said that "if the Kennedys couldn't carry Massachusetts, I doubt they can carry South Texas."

W. Gardner Selby writes for the Austin American-Statesman.