COMMENTARY: Clinton and the Hispanic fire wall

AUSTIN, Texas — Hillary Clinton brought her dented campaign into Texas last week and headed straight for the border. Appearances in El Paso, McAllen and San Antonio were on her schedule as she looked for that fire wall presumed to be hers in the heavily Latino areas of Texas.

The senator from New York needs a big win in Texas to pull out of a tail spin and Latinos are the key to that victory.

Clinton's Texas ties go back to the 1970s, when she and Bill Clinton came down to organize for the George McGovern campaign. That's when they connected with Texas Latinos like former state Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos of Austin and maintained the contact. Furthermore, the Clinton presidency played well with Texas Chicanos, so it is reasonable to think Latinos will prop up Clinton's sagging presidential prospects. The Hispanic fire wall, people are calling it.

That fire wall is curling smoke.

Things have changed since the 1970s, and while there can be no denying that Clinton's popularity with Hispanics is wide, it might not be very deep.

Here's why:

— Polling data that presume to show Clinton's strength with Latino voters is accurate as far as it goes. The problem is that it doesn't go far enough. Sen. Barack Obama's phenomenal ability to draw out new voters makes the sampling dubious because only people with polling histories are surveyed. Left out is the first-time or occasional voter who Obama has successfully tapped in other states. There are indications — some scientific, some guess work — that younger Latinos tend to favor Obama.

— Though South Texas is one-stop shopping for Hispanic votes, Texas Latinos are more urbanized than they were in the 1970s. There are more Latinos in Houston and Harris County now than in the Rio Grande Valley. Because delegates are selected by factors that include turnout in senatorial districts, South Texas organizers are going to have to pump up turnout to even have a chance to share the field with Travis, Dallas and Harris counties.

— Though the Democratic Party's organizational infrastructure in South Texas is not in quite the same disarray as it in the rest of the state, it's an older model and it's leaking oil.

Eddie Cavazos, a former state representative from Corpus Christi who is now an Austin lobbyist, says modern Latino voters are less dependent on the political leadership than previous generations. Why? Technology and access to information.

Political information is all over the airwaves and the Internet. The Latino population is young and getting younger. The median age for Hispanics is 27; for the rest of the population, it's 36.

Younger Latino voters don't have to depend on their elders for political information and guidance. In the storied Viva Kennedy and Viva Johnson campaigns of the 1960s, Latino organizations like the American GI Forum and the League of United Latin American Citizens built an organizational framework to get out the vote. Both organizations have long since faded, and their ability to deliver votes is marginal. Statewide elections in recent history haven't caught fire with South Texas Latino voters, the constituency Clinton is wooing.

Clinton has been successful in attracting South Texas political leaders, but most haven't been asked to play big league ball in so long that their games are mighty rusty.

Even if that weren't the case, the concept of the Latino political leader is undergoing metamorphosis. Gilberto S. Ocanas, former Texas Democratic Party vice chairman and former deputy executive director of the Democratic National Committee, notes that Latinos have learned a tough lesson.

"You know what happens to a herd of cattle when they follow the leader," said Ocanas, "they go to slaughter."

Yet there's a lot of mooing over the endorsements Clinton is getting from Tejano members of Congress and the Legislature. Latino elected officials reflect the generational split between Clinton and Obama backers. A high profile example is the Lucios of Brownsville. State Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. supports Clinton while his son, state Rep. Eddie Lucio III, backs Obama.

Endorsements are insiders talking to one another, and Ocanas is a prime example. A nationally connected operative, Ocanas honed his skills while working on Clinton campaigns of '92 and '96. An e-mail he sent last week raised eyebrows when he announced his support for Obama.

The impact of endorsements on the potentially big number of Latinos waiting for their chance to say something in a historic presidential election is not only questionable but difficult to measure.

Latinos aren't immune from Obama momentum. To contain the smoke coming out of that fire wall, Clinton is going to need an energized, focused effort that we just haven't seen yet.

Early voting starts Tuesday.

Arnold Garcia writes for the Austin American-Statesman.