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Looking down the playoff road
The last week of the regular season could certainly change things, but the playoff picture is starting to clear up a little.
If the current standings hold up, here’s what the playoff road looks like for some of the best teams in Central Texas:
CLASS 4A
Whether it wins or loses Friday against Waxahachie, No. 8 Midway will be District 16-4A’s top seed in Division I.
The Panthers appear headed for a first-round matchup with Forney (8-1), which is in a three-way tie atop 15-4A with Lancaster and West Mesquite. Forney and Lancaster are the two biggest schools in the district, putting them in Division I, and assuming the teams stay tied in the district, Lancaster would be seeded ahead of Forney thanks to a 17-10 head-to-head win.
That would leave Lancaster (5-4) for Waco High, assuming the Lions wrap up the final 16-4A spot, as expected. Lancaster lost close games to Ennis (40-36) and Waxahachie (15-12), two opponents Waco High knows well.
Lancaster’s only district loss was a 35-32 setback against West Mesquite.
Region II presents a brutal playoff road for Midway and Waco High.
The Panthers face a potential road of Forney, perennial power Texarkana Texas, No. 3 Highland Park, No. 5 Longview and No. 7 Wolfforth Frenship. If Midway scales that mountain, its reward could be No. 1 Lake Travis, the defending state champion, in the state title game.
If Waco High gets by Lancaster, it will likely run into Longview in the second round.
CLASS 3A
It was a great win for West, but the Trojans’ 44-33 victory last Friday over Gatesville has likely robbed Central Texas of the chance at a playoff rematch — one that would have come in the state title game — between No. 2 China Spring and No. 5 La Vega.
Unless Gatesville beats China Spring and West loses to Whitney on Friday, China Spring will be the Division I representative from District 7-3A.
Unless an upset happens, La Vega is headed to the Division II bracket.
There are still slim possibilities for that to change. If Gatesville receives its miracle, it will go Division I, leaving China in Division II.
If Groesbeck upsets Mexia, Lorena shocks La Vega or Robinson loses to Connally, La Vega will go Division I.
China Spring appears to have dodged a huge bullet with Burnet poised to slip into the playoffs in 8-3A. If Burnet had been left out, No. 1 Liberty Hill, the two-time defending state champ, would have been China Spring’s bi-district (first-round) opponent.
If the standings hold, the only other top-10 opponent in China Spring’s region would be No. 9 Abilene Wylie, which handed La Vega its only loss this season. China Spring and Wylie would meet in the regional final.
La Vega will have to work through another tough lineup in Division II Region II, with a possible road of Crockett, No. 6 Gilmer and No. 3 West Orange-Stark through the first three rounds.
CLASS 1A
No. 3 Itasca hasn’t been tested much this year, but it could face a big test in bi-district.
Lovelady and Normangee are playing for the third playoff berth in District 22-1A on Friday. If Normangee wins, Mart goes Division I and Normangee faces Itasca in Division II.
If Lovelady wins, it goes Division I, leaving Mart as the district’s top seed in Division II and leaving defending state runner-up Bremond to meet Itasca in the first round.
So, to simplify, the bi-district matchups between 21- and 22-1A will either look like this:
Division I: Axtell vs. Mart
Division II: Itasca vs. Normangee, Dawson vs. Bremond
Or this:
Division I: Axtell vs. Lovelady
Division II: Itasca vs. Bremond, Dawson vs. Mart
SIX-MAN
Abbott looks like a good bet to win its first two playoff games, but No. 1 Calvert looms as the likely opponent for the Panthers in the quarterfinals.
The last time these two teams were ranked this highly, Calvert defeated Abbott, 52-6, in the 2002 state semifinals.
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By Kevin
November 6, 2008 7:32 AM | Link to this | Report comment abuse
You left out 2A.